Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Palmeiras the pick at 42% for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Palmeiras travel to Cruzeiro on 18 November 2026 at Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte. Palmeiras are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 35 fixture in Serie A is listed as Cruzeiro - Palmeiras. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Cruzeiro: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (55 scored and 45 conceded in 40 matches, 1.38 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
Palmeiras: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (83 scored and 37 conceded in 52 matches, 1.6 and 0.71 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 78.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +39.
Side by side
| Statistic | Cruzeiro | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +7 | +39 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWL | LWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 8 | 10 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 40 | 52 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.38 / 1.12 | 1.6 / 0.71 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.62 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.8 | 78.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 32% | 42% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Cruzeiro none wins, Palmeiras two wins, two draws — an edge to Palmeiras.
- Most recent meeting: Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro on 17 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.75 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the four — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Cruzeiro 66.8 versus Palmeiras 78.1, a gap of 11.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Palmeiras' way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Palmeiras at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cruzeiro or Palmeiras?
Palmeiras, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 32% Cruzeiro, 26% the draw and 42% Palmeiras.
When and where is Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras being played?
18 November 2026 at Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Cruzeiro and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro on 17 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Cruzeiro and Palmeiras?
Cruzeiro have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWWL), Palmeiras 10 from theirs (LWWDW). Most recently Cruzeiro took a 3-2 win at home to Bahia and Palmeiras a 1-2 defeat away at Vasco DA Gama.
How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 2.00 for Cruzeiro and 2.00 for Palmeiras. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.