Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Flamengo the pick at 80% for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Atletico Paranaense travel to Flamengo on 18 November 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. Flamengo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 80%. This matchday 35 fixture in Serie A is listed as Flamengo - Atletico Paranaense. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Flamengo: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (85 scored and 32 conceded in 42 matches, 2.02 and 0.76 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 85.5 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +42.
Atletico Paranaense: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 33 conceded in 29 matches, 1.17 and 1.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.3 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Flamengo | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 5th |
| Goal difference | +42 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWDW | LLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 4 | 6 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 42 | 29 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.02 / 0.76 | 1.17 / 1.14 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.17 | 1.41 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 85.5 | 40.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 80% | 7% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Flamengo none wins, Atletico Paranaense none wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Flamengo on 17 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Flamengo 85.5 versus Atletico Paranaense 40.3, a gap of 45.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Flamengo's way at 79%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Flamengo at 80%, a gap of 67 percentage points to the next outcome. Flamengo's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Flamengo's way, especially at Estádio do Maracanã.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Flamengo or Atletico Paranaense?
Flamengo, with an implied win probability of roughly 80%. The full split is 80% Flamengo, 13% the draw and 7% Atletico Paranaense.
When and where is Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
18 November 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Flamengo on 17 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense?
Flamengo have taken 13 points from their last five (WWWDW), Atletico Paranaense 4 from theirs (LLDLW). Most recently Flamengo took a 3-1 win at home to Gremio and Atletico Paranaense a 1-3 defeat at home to Vasco DA Gama.
How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 2.60 for Flamengo and 1.20 for Atletico Paranaense. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.