Mirassol vs Atletico-MG match summary and prediction — Serie A
Our model makes Mirassol the pick at 42% for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Mirassol face Atletico-MG on 14 November 2026 at José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol. Mirassol are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 35 fixture in Serie A is listed as Mirassol - Atletico-MG. Kick-off is 21:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Mirassol: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 51 conceded in 43 matches, 1.12 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.1 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -9.
Atletico-MG: they come in on the back of a draw, following four defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (47 scored and 49 conceded in 41 matches, 1.15 and 1.2 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.0 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Mirassol | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -9 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDWL | DLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 5 | 3 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 43 | 41 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.12 / 1.19 | 1.15 / 1.2 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.1 | 46.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 33% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Mirassol none wins, Atletico-MG two wins, none draws — an edge to Atletico-MG.
- Most recent meeting: Atletico-MG 3-1 Mirassol on 16 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — broadly an average game for goals.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Mirassol's way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards Mirassol at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Mirassol's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Mirassol's way, especially at José Maria de Campos Maia.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mirassol or Atletico-MG?
Mirassol, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Mirassol, 25% the draw and 33% Atletico-MG.
When and where is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG being played?
14 November 2026 at José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG 3-1 Mirassol on 16 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Mirassol have taken 7 points from their last five (WLDWL), Atletico-MG 1 from theirs (DLLLL). Most recently Mirassol took a 2-1 win away at Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG a 1-1 draw at home to Gremio.
How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.40 for Mirassol and 0.60 for Atletico-MG. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.