Galway United vs Bohemians: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Galway United the pick at 68% for Galway United vs Bohemians. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Galway United host Bohemians on 11 September 2026 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Galway. Galway United are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 68%. This matchday 31 fixture in Premier Division is listed as Galway United - Bohemians. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Galway United: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 30 conceded in 19 matches, 1.32 and 1.58 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -6.
Bohemians: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 24 conceded in 21 matches, 1.48 and 1.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.3 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +16.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Galway United | Bohemians |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -6 | +16 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWDD | DWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 4 | 15 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 19 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.32 / 1.58 | 1.48 / 1.14 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.11 | 1.62 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.8 | 62.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 68% | 5% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Galway United none wins, Bohemians two wins, none draws — an edge to Bohemians.
- Most recent meeting: Galway United 2-4 Bohemians on 22 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Galway United 46.8 versus Bohemians 62.3, a gap of 15.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 11% and both teams to score at 30%.
- First goal: Leans Galway United's way at 76%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Galway United at 68%, a gap of 42 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Galway United's way, especially at Eamonn Deacy Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Galway United or Bohemians?
Galway United, with an implied win probability of roughly 68%. The full split is 68% Galway United, 27% the draw and 5% Bohemians.
When and where is Galway United vs Bohemians being played?
11 September 2026 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Galway, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Galway United and Bohemians?
Galway United 2-4 Bohemians on 22 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Galway United and Bohemians?
Galway United have taken 9 points from their last five (WDWDD), Bohemians 10 from theirs (DWWWL). Most recently Galway United took a 2-1 win away at Drogheda United and Bohemians a 1-1 draw away at St Patrick's Athl.
How many goals are expected in Galway United vs Bohemians?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Galway United and 1.00 for Bohemians. It rates over 2.5 goals at 11%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 30%, so its call is no.