Dundalk vs Bohemians: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Dundalk the pick at 50% for Dundalk vs Bohemians. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Dundalk host Bohemians on 2 October 2026 at Oriel Park, Dundalk. Dundalk are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 33 fixture in Premier Division is listed as Dundalk - Bohemians. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Dundalk: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 36 conceded in 24 matches, 1.5 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.3 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of -4.
Bohemians: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 35 conceded in 26 matches, 1.46 and 1.35 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +18.
Side by side
| Statistic | Dundalk | Bohemians |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -4 | +18 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLW | DWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 14 | 9 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 24 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.46 / 1.35 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.42 | 1.46 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.3 | 69.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 11% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Dundalk 37.3 versus Bohemians 69.5, a gap of 32.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.07, over 2.5 goals at 27% and both teams to score at 32%.
- First goal: Leans Dundalk's way at 71%.
The call
The model tilts to Dundalk at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Bohemians' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Dundalk's way, especially at Oriel Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Dundalk or Bohemians?
Dundalk, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Dundalk, 40% the draw and 11% Bohemians.
When and where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
2 October 2026 at Oriel Park, Dundalk, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk on 20 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Dundalk and Bohemians?
Dundalk have taken 4 points from their last five (LLDLW), Bohemians 11 from theirs (DWWDW). Most recently Dundalk took a 2-3 defeat at home to Shelbourne and Bohemians a 0-0 draw at home to Bohemians 1905.
How many goals are expected in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.07 — 1.40 for Dundalk and 1.67 for Bohemians. It rates over 2.5 goals at 27%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 32%, so its call is no.