Bohemians vs Shelbourne match summary and prediction — Premier Division
Our model makes a draw the pick at 52% for Bohemians vs Shelbourne. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Bohemians host Shelbourne on 23 October 2026 at Dalymount Park, Dublin. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 52%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 35 fixture in Premier Division is listed as Bohemians - Shelbourne. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Bohemians: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 35 conceded in 26 matches, 1.46 and 1.35 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +19.
Shelbourne: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 39 conceded in 27 matches, 1.33 and 1.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Bohemians | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +19 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLWD | WWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 12 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 26 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.46 / 1.35 | 1.33 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.46 | 1.22 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 69.8 | 58.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 26% | 22% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Bohemians none wins, Shelbourne none wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Bohemians 2-2 Shelbourne on 04 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Bohemians 69.8 versus Shelbourne 58.8, a gap of 10.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.27, over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 44%.
- First goal: Leans Bohemians' way at 52%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bohemians or Shelbourne?
Neither side. Our model splits it 26% Bohemians, 52% the draw and 22% Shelbourne, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Bohemians vs Shelbourne being played?
23 October 2026 at Dalymount Park, Dublin, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Bohemians 2-2 Shelbourne on 04 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Bohemians have taken 7 points from their last five (WLLWD), Shelbourne 10 from theirs (WWDWL). Most recently Bohemians took a 2-1 win at home to Waterford and Shelbourne a 2-1 win away at St Patrick's Athl.
How many goals are expected in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.27 — 1.67 for Bohemians and 0.60 for Shelbourne. It rates over 2.5 goals at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 44%, so its call is no.