Derry City vs Dundalk: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 51% for Derry City vs Dundalk. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Dundalk travel to Derry City on 23 October 2026 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 51%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 35 fixture in Premier Division is listed as Derry City - Dundalk. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Derry City: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (35 scored and 32 conceded in 26 matches, 1.35 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.9 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +1.
Dundalk: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (36 scored and 36 conceded in 24 matches, 1.5 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.4 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of -5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Derry City | Dundalk |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +1 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWDW | DLLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 4 | 5 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 26 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.35 / 1.23 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.27 | 1.42 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.9 | 30.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 28% | 21% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Derry City none wins, Dundalk one win, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Dundalk 2-1 Derry City on 29 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.67 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Derry City 51.9 versus Dundalk 30.4, a gap of 21.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.90, over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 43%.
- First goal: Leans Derry City's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Derry City's form line and home advantage back it, the goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Derry City or Dundalk?
Neither side. Our model splits it 28% Derry City, 51% the draw and 21% Dundalk, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Derry City vs Dundalk being played?
23 October 2026 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Derry City and Dundalk?
Dundalk 2-1 Derry City on 29 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Derry City and Dundalk?
Derry City have taken 10 points from their last five (LWWDW), Dundalk 2 from theirs (DLLLD). Most recently Derry City took a 0-2 defeat away at Drogheda United and Dundalk a 1-1 draw away at Sligo Rovers.
How many goals are expected in Derry City vs Dundalk?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.90 — 1.50 for Derry City and 1.40 for Dundalk. It rates over 2.5 goals at 12%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 43%, so its call is no.