Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Galway United the pick at 76% for Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
St Patrick's Athl. travel to Galway United on 23 October 2026 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Galway. Galway United are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 76%. This matchday 35 fixture in Premier Division is listed as Galway United - St Patrick's Athl. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Galway United: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 35 conceded in 23 matches, 1.35 and 1.52 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.3 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -4.
St Patrick's Athl.: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 18 conceded in 24 matches, 1.71 and 0.75 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 61.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +26.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Galway United | St Patrick's Athl. |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -4 | +26 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLW | LWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 5 | 9 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 23 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.35 / 1.52 | 1.71 / 0.75 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.13 | 1.88 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 47.3 | 61.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 76% | 3% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 0 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Galway United none wins, St Patrick's Athl. two wins, one draw — an edge to St Patrick's Athl.
- Most recent meeting: St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Galway United on 03 July 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.67 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the three — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Galway United 47.3 versus St Patrick's Athl. 61.5, a gap of 14.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 24%.
- First goal: Leans Galway United's way at 81%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Galway United at 76%, a gap of 54 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Galway United's way, especially at Eamonn Deacy Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Galway United or St Patrick's Athl.?
Galway United, with an implied win probability of roughly 76%. The full split is 76% Galway United, 21% the draw and 3% St Patrick's Athl.
When and where is Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
23 October 2026 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Galway, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Galway United and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Galway United on 03 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Galway United and St Patrick's Athl.?
Galway United have taken 7 points from their last five (WLDLW), St Patrick's Athl. 10 from theirs (LWWWD). Most recently Galway United took a 2-0 win at home to Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. a 1-2 defeat at home to Shelbourne.
How many goals are expected in Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.00 for Galway United and 1.60 for St Patrick's Athl. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 24%, so its call is no.