Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Shamrock Rovers the pick at 65% for Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Sligo Rovers travel to Shamrock Rovers on 23 October 2026 at Tallaght Stadium, Dublin. Shamrock Rovers are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 65%. This matchday 35 fixture in Premier Division is listed as Shamrock Rovers - Sligo Rovers. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Shamrock Rovers: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (42 scored and 25 conceded in 27 matches, 1.56 and 0.93 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +19.
Sligo Rovers: they come in on the back of a draw, following four defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 41 conceded in 24 matches, 0.75 and 1.71 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 19.8 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -34.
Side by side
| Statistic | Shamrock Rovers | Sligo Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 10th |
| Goal difference | +19 | -34 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWL | DLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 3 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 27 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.56 / 0.93 | 0.75 / 1.71 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.89 | 0.79 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.8 | 19.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 65% | 6% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 2 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Shamrock Rovers two wins, Sligo Rovers one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Sligo Rovers 1-2 Shamrock Rovers on 03 July 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.67 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the three — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Shamrock Rovers 59.8 versus Sligo Rovers 19.8, a gap of 39.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.20, over 2.5 goals at 9% and both teams to score at 28%.
- First goal: Leans Shamrock Rovers' way at 79%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Shamrock Rovers at 65%, a gap of 36 percentage points to the next outcome. Shamrock Rovers' form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Shamrock Rovers's way, especially at Tallaght Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Shamrock Rovers or Sligo Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers, with an implied win probability of roughly 65%. The full split is 65% Shamrock Rovers, 29% the draw and 6% Sligo Rovers.
When and where is Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers being played?
23 October 2026 at Tallaght Stadium, Dublin, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers?
Sligo Rovers 1-2 Shamrock Rovers on 03 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWWL), Sligo Rovers 1 from theirs (DLLLL). Most recently Shamrock Rovers took a 0-2 defeat away at Galway United and Sligo Rovers a 1-1 draw at home to Dundalk.
How many goals are expected in Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.20 — 0.80 for Shamrock Rovers and 0.40 for Sligo Rovers. It rates over 2.5 goals at 9%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 28%, so its call is no.