Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers match summary and prediction — Premier Division
Our model makes Shamrock Rovers the pick at 45% for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Dundalk face Shamrock Rovers on 30 October 2026 at Oriel Park, Dundalk. Shamrock Rovers are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 36 fixture in Premier Division is listed as Dundalk - Shamrock Rovers. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Dundalk: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 38 conceded in 25 matches, 1.48 and 1.52 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -6.
Shamrock Rovers: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 25 conceded in 28 matches, 1.64 and 0.89 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 70.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +23.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Dundalk | Shamrock Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -6 | +23 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLL | WLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 12 | 12 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 25 | 28 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.48 / 1.52 | 1.64 / 0.89 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.36 | 1.93 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.8 | 70.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 28% | 45% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Dundalk one win, Shamrock Rovers one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Dundalk on 07 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.67 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the three — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Dundalk 26.8 versus Shamrock Rovers 70.8, a gap of 43.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Shamrock Rovers' way at 52%.
The call
The model edges towards Shamrock Rovers at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Shamrock Rovers' stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Dundalk or Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 28% Dundalk, 27% the draw and 45% Shamrock Rovers.
When and where is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
30 October 2026 at Oriel Park, Dundalk, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Dundalk on 07 August 2026.
What is the recent form of Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Dundalk have taken 1 points from their last five (LDLLL), Shamrock Rovers 12 from theirs (WLWWW). Most recently Dundalk took a 1-2 defeat away at Derry City and Shamrock Rovers a 4-0 win at home to Sligo Rovers.
How many goals are expected in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.00 for Dundalk and 2.00 for Shamrock Rovers. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.