Shelbourne vs Waterford — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Shelbourne the pick at 40% for Shelbourne vs Waterford. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Shelbourne host Waterford on 30 October 2026 at Tolka Park, Dublin. Shelbourne are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 36 fixture in Premier Division is listed as Shelbourne - Waterford. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Shelbourne: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 39 conceded in 28 matches, 1.32 and 1.39 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +3.
Waterford: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 43 conceded in 25 matches, 1.52 and 1.72 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.3 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Shelbourne | Waterford |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 8th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWDW | WWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 5 | 11 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 28 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.32 / 1.39 | 1.52 / 1.72 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.29 | 1.12 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 69.1 | 46.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 33% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Shelbourne one win, Waterford one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Waterford 1-0 Shelbourne on 02 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the three — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Shelbourne 69.1 versus Waterford 46.3, a gap of 22.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Shelbourne's way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards Shelbourne at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Shelbourne's way, especially at Tolka Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Shelbourne or Waterford?
Shelbourne, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Shelbourne, 27% the draw and 33% Waterford.
When and where is Shelbourne vs Waterford being played?
30 October 2026 at Tolka Park, Dublin, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Waterford 1-0 Shelbourne on 02 August 2026.
What is the recent form of Shelbourne and Waterford?
Shelbourne have taken 13 points from their last five (WWWDW), Waterford 9 from theirs (WWLWL). Most recently Shelbourne took a 1-0 win away at Bohemians and Waterford a 3-1 win at home to Drogheda United.
How many goals are expected in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 0.80 for Shelbourne and 2.00 for Waterford. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.