Sligo Rovers vs Derry City: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Derry City the pick at 57% for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Sligo Rovers face Derry City on 30 October 2026 at Showgrounds, Sligo. Derry City are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This matchday 36 fixture in Premier Division is listed as Sligo Rovers - Derry City. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Sligo Rovers: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 45 conceded in 25 matches, 0.72 and 1.8 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 18.8 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -38.
Derry City: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 33 conceded in 27 matches, 1.37 and 1.22 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.1 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sligo Rovers | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 5th |
| Goal difference | -38 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLL | WWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 14 | 6 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 25 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.72 / 1.8 | 1.37 / 1.22 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.76 | 1.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 18.8 | 59.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 20% | 57% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 0 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Sligo Rovers none wins, Derry City two wins, one draw — an edge to Derry City.
- Most recent meeting: Derry City 2-0 Sligo Rovers on 07 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.67 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the three — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Sligo Rovers 18.8 versus Derry City 59.1, a gap of 40.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Derry City's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Derry City at 57%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. Derry City's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sligo Rovers or Derry City?
Derry City, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 20% Sligo Rovers, 23% the draw and 57% Derry City.
When and where is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City being played?
30 October 2026 at Showgrounds, Sligo, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
Derry City 2-0 Sligo Rovers on 07 August 2026.
What is the recent form of Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
Sligo Rovers have taken 1 points from their last five (LDLLL), Derry City 12 from theirs (WWLWW). Most recently Sligo Rovers took a 0-4 defeat away at Shamrock Rovers and Derry City a 2-1 win at home to Dundalk.
How many goals are expected in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.40 for Sligo Rovers and 1.60 for Derry City. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.