St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes St Patrick's Athl. the pick at 52% for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians on 30 October 2026 at Richmond Park, Dublin. St Patrick's Athl. are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 36 fixture in Premier Division is listed as St Patrick's Athl. - Bohemians. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
St Patrick's Athl.: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 18 conceded in 25 matches, 1.64 and 0.72 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.6 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +25.
Bohemians: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 36 conceded in 27 matches, 1.41 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +18.
Comparison data
| Statistic | St Patrick's Athl. | Bohemians |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +25 | +18 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLWW | LWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 3 | 5 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 25 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.64 / 0.72 | 1.41 / 1.33 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.84 | 1.41 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 54.6 | 59.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 20% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): St Patrick's Athl. one win, Bohemians none wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 Bohemians on 24 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: St Patrick's Athl. 54.6 versus Bohemians 59.5, a gap of 4.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans St Patrick's Athl.'s way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to St Patrick's Athl. at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Bohemians' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts St Patrick's Athl.'s way, especially at Richmond Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: St Patrick's Athl. or Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl., with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% St Patrick's Athl., 28% the draw and 20% Bohemians.
When and where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians being played?
30 October 2026 at Richmond Park, Dublin, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 Bohemians on 24 April 2026.
What is the recent form of St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. have taken 7 points from their last five (DLLWW), Bohemians 6 from theirs (LWLLW). Most recently St Patrick's Athl. took a 0-0 draw away at Galway United and Bohemians a 0-1 defeat at home to Shelbourne.
How many goals are expected in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.80 for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.20 for Bohemians. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.