San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes San Lorenzo the pick at 55% for San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
San Lorenzo host Boca Juniors on 20 September 2026 at Estadio Pedro Bidegain, Buenos Aires. San Lorenzo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This clausura 10 fixture in Liga Profesional Argentina is listed as San Lorenzo - Boca Juniors. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
San Lorenzo: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 21 conceded in 21 matches, 0.95 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.7 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of 0.
Boca Juniors: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 17 conceded in 22 matches, 1.36 and 0.77 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +13.
Comparison data
| Statistic | San Lorenzo | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | 0 | +13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLDW | DWWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 2 | 7 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.95 / 1.0 | 1.36 / 0.77 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.24 | 1.64 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.7 | 58.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 8% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: San Lorenzo 51.7 versus Boca Juniors 58.2, a gap of 6.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.30, over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 42%.
- First goal: Leans San Lorenzo's way at 68%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to San Lorenzo at 55%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts San Lorenzo's way, especially at Estadio Pedro Bidegain.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: San Lorenzo or Boca Juniors?
San Lorenzo, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% San Lorenzo, 37% the draw and 8% Boca Juniors.
When and where is San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors being played?
20 September 2026 at Estadio Pedro Bidegain, Buenos Aires, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors?
Boca Juniors 1-1 San Lorenzo on 11 March 2026.
What is the recent form of San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors?
San Lorenzo have taken 8 points from their last five (DWLDW), Boca Juniors 9 from theirs (DWWDD). Most recently San Lorenzo took a 1-1 draw away at Independiente and Boca Juniors a 1-1 draw away at Sao Paulo.
How many goals are expected in San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.30 — 1.50 for San Lorenzo and 0.80 for Boca Juniors. It rates over 2.5 goals at 12%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 42%, so its call is no.