Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 49% for Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Defensa Y Justicia host San Lorenzo on 3 October 2026 at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 49%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This clausura 11 fixture in Liga Profesional Argentina is listed as Defensa Y Justicia - San Lorenzo. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Defensa Y Justicia: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 27 conceded in 21 matches, 1.14 and 1.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.6 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -3.
San Lorenzo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 27 conceded in 28 matches, 0.82 and 0.96 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.7 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Defensa Y Justicia | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLWW | LDWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 4 | 2 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 28 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.14 / 1.29 | 0.82 / 0.96 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.33 | 1.18 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.6 | 41.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 17% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Defensa Y Justicia 57.6 versus San Lorenzo 41.7, a gap of 15.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 21% and both teams to score at 41%.
- First goal: Leans Defensa Y Justicia's way at 59%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Defensa Y Justicia or San Lorenzo?
Neither side. Our model splits it 34% Defensa Y Justicia, 49% the draw and 17% San Lorenzo, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo being played?
3 October 2026 at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Defensa Y Justicia and San Lorenzo?
San Lorenzo 2-5 Defensa Y Justicia on 16 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Defensa Y Justicia and San Lorenzo?
Defensa Y Justicia have taken 10 points from their last five (DWLWW), San Lorenzo 5 from theirs (LDWLD). Most recently Defensa Y Justicia took a 2-2 draw away at Central Cordoba de Santiago and San Lorenzo a 0-2 defeat at home to Boca Juniors.
How many goals are expected in Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.40 for Defensa Y Justicia and 1.40 for San Lorenzo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 21%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 41%, so its call is no.