Newells Old Boys vs Lanus: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Newells Old Boys the pick at 70% for Newells Old Boys vs Lanus. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Newells Old Boys face Lanus on 3 October 2026 at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario. Newells Old Boys are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 70%. This clausura 11 fixture in Liga Profesional Argentina is listed as Newells Old Boys - Lanus. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Newells Old Boys: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 31 conceded in 20 matches, 0.9 and 1.55 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.0 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -12.
Lanus: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 32 conceded in 31 matches, 1.0 and 1.03 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.1 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Newells Old Boys | Lanus |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -12 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDDDW | WWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 3 | 7 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 31 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.9 / 1.55 | 1.0 / 1.03 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.9 | 1.48 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.0 | 59.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 70% | 4% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Newells Old Boys 52.0 versus Lanus 59.1, a gap of 7.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 22%.
- First goal: Leans Newells Old Boys' way at 81%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Newells Old Boys at 70%, a gap of 44 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Newells Old Boys's way, especially at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Newells Old Boys or Lanus?
Newells Old Boys, with an implied win probability of roughly 70%. The full split is 70% Newells Old Boys, 26% the draw and 4% Lanus.
When and where is Newells Old Boys vs Lanus being played?
3 October 2026 at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Newells Old Boys and Lanus?
Lanus 5-0 Newells Old Boys on 17 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Newells Old Boys and Lanus?
Newells Old Boys have taken 9 points from their last five (WDDDW), Lanus 10 from theirs (WWWLD). Most recently Newells Old Boys took a 1-0 win away at Platense and Lanus a 2-1 win at home to Estudiantes L.P.
How many goals are expected in Newells Old Boys vs Lanus?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.20 for Newells Old Boys and 1.40 for Lanus. It rates over 2.5 goals at 12%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 22%, so its call is no.