Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Gimnasia L.P. the pick at 50% for Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Gimnasia L.P. host Sarmiento Junin on 23 October 2026 at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata. Gimnasia L.P. are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This clausura 14 fixture in Liga Profesional Argentina is listed as Gimnasia L.P. - Sarmiento Junin. Kick-off is 22:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Gimnasia L.P.: they come in on the back of a win, following four draws before that. That is one win, four draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 24 conceded in 22 matches, 1.27 and 1.09 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.3 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of 0.
Sarmiento Junin: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 25 conceded in 21 matches, 1.0 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.9 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Gimnasia L.P. | Sarmiento Junin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 11th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDDDD | DWLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.27 / 1.09 | 1.0 / 1.19 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.86 | 1.38 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.3 | 49.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 11% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Gimnasia L.P. 48.3 versus Sarmiento Junin 49.9, a gap of 1.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 9% and both teams to score at 29%.
- First goal: Leans Gimnasia L.P.'s way at 73%.
The call
The model tilts to Gimnasia L.P. at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Gimnasia L.P.'s way, especially at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gimnasia L.P. or Sarmiento Junin?
Gimnasia L.P., with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Gimnasia L.P., 39% the draw and 11% Sarmiento Junin.
When and where is Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin being played?
23 October 2026 at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata, kick-off 22:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Gimnasia L.P. and Sarmiento Junin?
Sarmiento Junin 1-2 Gimnasia L.P. on 13 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Gimnasia L.P. and Sarmiento Junin?
Gimnasia L.P. have taken 7 points from their last five (WDDDD), Sarmiento Junin 8 from theirs (DWLDW). Most recently Gimnasia L.P. took a 2-1 win away at Huracan and Sarmiento Junin a 1-1 draw at home to River Plate.
How many goals are expected in Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Gimnasia L.P. and 1.00 for Sarmiento Junin. It rates over 2.5 goals at 9%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 29%, so its call is no.