Lanus vs Gimnasia M.: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Lanus the pick at 55% for Lanus vs Gimnasia M. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Lanus host Gimnasia M. on 1 November 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires. Lanus are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This clausura 15 fixture in Liga Profesional Argentina is listed as Lanus - Gimnasia M. Kick-off is 23:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lanus: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 33 conceded in 32 matches, 1.0 and 1.03 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
Gimnasia M.: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 31 conceded in 22 matches, 0.95 and 1.41 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.3 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Lanus | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 11th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWDW | LLWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 2 | 2 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 32 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 1.03 | 0.95 / 1.41 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.47 | 1.05 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 62.4 | 36.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 20% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Lanus 62.4 versus Gimnasia M. 36.3, a gap of 26.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Lanus' way at 60%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Lanus at 55%, a gap of 31 percentage points to the next outcome. Lanus' form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Lanus's way, especially at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lanus or Gimnasia M.?
Lanus, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% Lanus, 25% the draw and 20% Gimnasia M.
When and where is Lanus vs Gimnasia M. being played?
1 November 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires, kick-off 23:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Lanus and Gimnasia M.?
Gimnasia M. 1-0 Lanus on 21 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Lanus and Gimnasia M.?
Lanus have taken 11 points from their last five (DWWDW), Gimnasia M. 4 from theirs (LLWLD). Most recently Lanus took a 1-1 draw away at Banfield and Gimnasia M. a 1-2 defeat at home to Platense.
How many goals are expected in Lanus vs Gimnasia M.?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.80 for Lanus and 1.20 for Gimnasia M. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.