Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Velez Sarsfield the pick at 55% for Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
San Lorenzo travel to Velez Sarsfield on 31 October 2026 at Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires. Velez Sarsfield are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This clausura 15 fixture in Liga Profesional Argentina is listed as Velez Sarsfield - San Lorenzo. Kick-off is 22:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Velez Sarsfield: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 16 conceded in 22 matches, 1.32 and 0.73 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +6.
San Lorenzo: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 28 conceded in 30 matches, 0.83 and 0.93 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.3 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Velez Sarsfield | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 7th |
| Goal difference | +6 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLDW | DWWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 6 | 3 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.32 / 0.73 | 0.83 / 0.93 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.77 | 1.23 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.8 | 48.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 18% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Velez Sarsfield 59.8 versus San Lorenzo 48.3, a gap of 11.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Velez Sarsfield's way at 61%.
The call
The model tilts to Velez Sarsfield at 55%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Velez Sarsfield's way, especially at Jose Amalfitani.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Velez Sarsfield or San Lorenzo?
Velez Sarsfield, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% Velez Sarsfield, 27% the draw and 18% San Lorenzo.
When and where is Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo being played?
31 October 2026 at Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires, kick-off 22:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo?
San Lorenzo 0-0 Velez Sarsfield on 20 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo?
Velez Sarsfield have taken 10 points from their last five (WWLDW), San Lorenzo 7 from theirs (DWWLL). Most recently Velez Sarsfield took a 5-0 win away at Central Cordoba de Santiago and San Lorenzo a 0-0 draw at home to Newells Old Boys.
How many goals are expected in Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.80 for Velez Sarsfield and 0.80 for San Lorenzo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.