Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Fredrikstad the pick at 75% for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Fredrikstad face Sarpsborg 08 FF on 13 September 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad. Fredrikstad are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 75%. This matchday 21 fixture in Eliteserien is listed as Fredrikstad - Sarpsborg 08 FF. Kick-off is 17:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Fredrikstad: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 23 conceded in 13 matches, 1.15 and 1.77 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.2 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -7.
Sarpsborg 08 FF: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 16 conceded in 13 matches, 1.08 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Fredrikstad | Sarpsborg 08 FF |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -7 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWW | DDWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 14 / 4 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 13 | 13 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.15 / 1.77 | 1.08 / 1.23 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.08 | 1.38 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.2 | 34.2 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 75% | 4% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Fredrikstad 63.2 versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 34.2, a gap of 29.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 11% and both teams to score at 26%.
- First goal: Leans Fredrikstad's way at 78%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Fredrikstad at 75%, a gap of 53 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Fredrikstad's way, especially at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Fredrikstad or Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Fredrikstad, with an implied win probability of roughly 75%. The full split is 75% Fredrikstad, 22% the draw and 4% Sarpsborg 08 FF.
When and where is Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
13 September 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad, kick-off 17:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Fredrikstad on 09 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Fredrikstad have taken 12 points from their last five (LWWWW), Sarpsborg 08 FF 5 from theirs (DDWLL). Most recently Fredrikstad took a 1-2 defeat at home to Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF a 2-2 draw at home to Valerenga.
How many goals are expected in Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 1.00 for Fredrikstad and 0.00 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. It rates over 2.5 goals at 11%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 26%, so its call is no.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Fredrikstad and six for Sarpsborg 08 FF at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.