Start vs Lillestrom match summary and prediction — Eliteserien
There is barely anything between Start and Lillestrom on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Start host Lillestrom on 1 November 2026 at Sør Arena, Kristiansand. Lillestrom are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 25 fixture in Eliteserien is listed as Start - Lillestrom. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Start: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 45 conceded in 20 matches, 0.9 and 2.25 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.0 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -28.
Lillestrom: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 29 conceded in 21 matches, 1.48 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Start | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -28 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLWW | WWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 12 | 8 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 20 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.9 / 2.25 | 1.48 / 1.38 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.65 | 1.76 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.0 | 58.8 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 39% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Start 38.0 versus Lillestrom 58.8, a gap of 20.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Start's way at 49%.
The call
The model does not commit. Lillestrom is the nominal pick at 39%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Start or Lillestrom?
Lillestrom, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 37% Start, 24% the draw and 39% Lillestrom.
When and where is Start vs Lillestrom being played?
1 November 2026 at Sør Arena, Kristiansand, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Start and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom 3-1 Start on 11 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Start and Lillestrom?
Start have taken 9 points from their last five (WLLWW), Lillestrom 10 from theirs (WWLWD). Most recently Start took a 1-0 win at home to Sandefjord and Lillestrom a 2-1 win at home to Sogndal.
How many goals are expected in Start vs Lillestrom?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 0.80 for Start and 1.80 for Lillestrom. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Start and six for Lillestrom at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.