Valerenga vs Tromso match summary and prediction — Eliteserien
There is barely anything between Valerenga and Tromso on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Valerenga host Tromso on 1 November 2026 at Intility Arena, Oslo. Tromso are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 25 fixture in Eliteserien is listed as Valerenga - Tromso. Kick-off is 18:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Valerenga: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 33 conceded in 19 matches, 1.53 and 1.74 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.6 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -7.
Tromso: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 32 conceded in 23 matches, 1.96 and 1.39 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.9 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Valerenga | Tromso |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 5th |
| Goal difference | -7 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLD | WLDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 7 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 19 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.53 / 1.74 | 1.96 / 1.39 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.42 | 1.78 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.6 | 43.9 |
| Players unavailable | 6 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 40% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Valerenga 46.6 versus Tromso 43.9, a gap of 2.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Tromso's way at 49%.
The call
The model does not commit. Tromso is the nominal pick at 40%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Valerenga or Tromso?
Tromso, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 37% Valerenga, 24% the draw and 40% Tromso.
When and where is Valerenga vs Tromso being played?
1 November 2026 at Intility Arena, Oslo, kick-off 18:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Valerenga and Tromso?
Tromso 4-0 Valerenga on 11 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Valerenga and Tromso?
Valerenga have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWLD), Tromso 8 from theirs (WLDDW). Most recently Valerenga took a 2-3 defeat away at Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso a 3-2 win at home to Haugesund.
How many goals are expected in Valerenga vs Tromso?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.40 for Valerenga and 1.40 for Tromso. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists six players unavailable for Valerenga and six for Tromso at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.