Lillestrom vs Aalesund match summary and prediction — Eliteserien
Our model makes Lillestrom the pick at 56% for Lillestrom vs Aalesund. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Aalesund travel to Lillestrom on 8 November 2026. Lillestrom are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 26 fixture in Eliteserien is listed as Lillestrom - Aalesund. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lillestrom: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 29 conceded in 22 matches, 1.45 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.1 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Aalesund: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 44 conceded in 20 matches, 1.45 and 2.2 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.5 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -14.
Side by side
| Statistic | Lillestrom | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 14th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -14 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLW | LWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 9 | 12 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.45 / 1.32 | 1.45 / 2.2 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.82 | 0.85 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.1 | 41.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 21% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Lillestrom 59.1 versus Aalesund 41.5, a gap of 17.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Lillestrom's way at 65%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Lillestrom at 56%, a gap of 32 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lillestrom or Aalesund?
Lillestrom, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Lillestrom, 24% the draw and 21% Aalesund.
When and where is Lillestrom vs Aalesund being played?
8 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Lillestrom and Aalesund?
Aalesund 1-3 Lillestrom on 15 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Lillestrom and Aalesund?
Lillestrom have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWLW), Aalesund 6 from theirs (LWLWL). Most recently Lillestrom took a 1-0 win away at Start and Aalesund a 3-4 defeat at home to Sandefjord.
How many goals are expected in Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.60 for Lillestrom and 1.60 for Aalesund. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.