Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Union La Calera the pick at 57% for Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Deportes Limache travel to Union La Calera on 14 September 2026. Union La Calera are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This matchday 23 fixture in Primera División is listed as Union La Calera - Deportes Limache. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Union La Calera: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 20 conceded in 13 matches, 1.08 and 1.54 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 22.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -22.
Deportes Limache: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 18 conceded in 13 matches, 2.0 and 1.38 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.2 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +9.
Side by side
| Statistic | Union La Calera | Deportes Limache |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -22 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLL | WWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 9 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 13 | 13 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.08 / 1.54 | 2.0 / 1.38 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.31 | 1.54 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 22.8 | 57.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 57% | 9% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Union La Calera 22.8 versus Deportes Limache 57.2, a gap of 34.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.33, over 2.5 goals at 18% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Union La Calera's way at 71%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Union La Calera at 57%, a gap of 22 percentage points to the next outcome. Deportes Limache's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Union La Calera or Deportes Limache?
Union La Calera, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% Union La Calera, 34% the draw and 9% Deportes Limache.
When and where is Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache being played?
14 September 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Union La Calera and Deportes Limache?
Deportes Limache 4-0 Union La Calera on 04 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Union La Calera and Deportes Limache?
Union La Calera have taken 1 points from their last five (LLDLL), Deportes Limache 9 from theirs (WWLWL). Most recently Union La Calera took a 1-2 defeat away at O'Higgins and Deportes Limache a 3-0 win at home to Cobresal.
How many goals are expected in Union La Calera vs Deportes Limache?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.33 — 1.33 for Union La Calera and 1.00 for Deportes Limache. It rates over 2.5 goals at 18%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.