Incheon United vs Jeju United FC: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Incheon United the pick at 38% for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Incheon United face Jeju United FC on 24 October 2026 at Incheon Football Stadium, Incheon. Incheon United are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 33 fixture in K League 1 is listed as Incheon United - Jeju United FC. Kick-off is 05:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Incheon United: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored six and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.5 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +6.
Jeju United FC: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Incheon United | Jeju United FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 6th |
| Goal difference | +6 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDDL | LLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 4 | 7 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.5 | 49.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Incheon United 46.5 versus Jeju United FC 49.3, a gap of 2.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Incheon United's way at 48%.
The call
The model edges towards Incheon United at 38%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Incheon United's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Incheon United's way, especially at Incheon Football Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Incheon United or Jeju United FC?
Incheon United, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Incheon United, 32% the draw and 30% Jeju United FC.
When and where is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC being played?
24 October 2026 at Incheon Football Stadium, Incheon, kick-off 05:00 UTC.
Have Incheon United and Jeju United FC met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Incheon United have taken 6 points from their last five (DWDDL), Jeju United FC 7 from theirs (LLWDW). Most recently Incheon United took a 1-1 draw away at Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC a 2-3 defeat away at Jeonbuk Motors.
How many goals are expected in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Incheon United and 1.20 for Jeju United FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.