Chicago Red Stars W vs Houston Dash W match summary and prediction — NWSL Women
There is barely anything between Chicago Red Stars W and Houston Dash W on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Chicago Red Stars W face Houston Dash W on 24 October 2026 at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, Evanston, IL. Chicago Red Stars W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This group stage fixture in NWSL Women is listed as Chicago Red Stars W - Houston Dash W. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Chicago Red Stars W: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one draw before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 41 conceded in 18 matches, 0.44 and 2.28 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 15.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -50.
Houston Dash W: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 30 conceded in 19 matches, 1.21 and 1.58 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.8 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Chicago Red Stars W | Houston Dash W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -50 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLD | LLDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 13 | 6 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 18 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.44 / 2.28 | 1.21 / 1.58 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.61 | 0.95 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 15.8 | 36.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 35% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Chicago Red Stars W 15.8 versus Houston Dash W 36.8, a gap of 21.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Houston Dash W's way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Chicago Red Stars W is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Chicago Red Stars W's way, especially at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chicago Red Stars W or Houston Dash W?
Chicago Red Stars W, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 36% Chicago Red Stars W, 29% the draw and 35% Houston Dash W.
When and where is Chicago Red Stars W vs Houston Dash W being played?
24 October 2026 at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, Evanston, IL, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Chicago Red Stars W and Houston Dash W?
Houston Dash W 5-0 Chicago Red Stars W on 20 August 2026.
What is the recent form of Chicago Red Stars W and Houston Dash W?
Chicago Red Stars W have taken 1 points from their last five (LLLLD), Houston Dash W 4 from theirs (LLDWL). Most recently Chicago Red Stars W took a 1-3 defeat at home to Seattle Reign FC W and Houston Dash W a 1-2 defeat at home to Orlando Pride W.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Red Stars W vs Houston Dash W?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.40 for Chicago Red Stars W and 1.60 for Houston Dash W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.