Portland Thorns W vs North Carolina Courage W — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Portland Thorns W and North Carolina Courage W on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Portland Thorns W face North Carolina Courage W on 24 October 2026 at Providence Park, Portland. Portland Thorns W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This group stage fixture in NWSL Women is listed as Portland Thorns W - North Carolina Courage W. Kick-off is 02:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Portland Thorns W: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 25 conceded in 18 matches, 1.61 and 1.39 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.5 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +6.
North Carolina Courage W: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 18 conceded in 17 matches, 2.18 and 1.06 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.5 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Portland Thorns W | North Carolina Courage W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +6 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDWD | LWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 9 | 5 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 18 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.61 / 1.39 | 2.18 / 1.06 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.67 | 1.94 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.5 | 37.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 38% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Portland Thorns W 46.5 versus North Carolina Courage W 37.5, a gap of 9.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Portland Thorns W's way at 51%.
The call
The model does not commit. Portland Thorns W is the nominal pick at 40%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Portland Thorns W's way, especially at Providence Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Portland Thorns W or North Carolina Courage W?
Portland Thorns W, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Portland Thorns W, 22% the draw and 38% North Carolina Courage W.
When and where is Portland Thorns W vs North Carolina Courage W being played?
24 October 2026 at Providence Park, Portland, kick-off 02:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Portland Thorns W and North Carolina Courage W?
North Carolina Courage W 2-2 Portland Thorns W on 04 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Portland Thorns W and North Carolina Courage W?
Portland Thorns W have taken 6 points from their last five (DLDWD), North Carolina Courage W 3 from theirs (LWLLL). Most recently Portland Thorns W took a 2-2 draw away at Bay FC W and North Carolina Courage W a 1-2 defeat at home to San Diego Wave W.
How many goals are expected in Portland Thorns W vs North Carolina Courage W?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.80 — 1.80 for Portland Thorns W and 3.00 for North Carolina Courage W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.