Denver Summit W vs Racing Louisville W — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Denver Summit W the pick at 54% for Denver Summit W vs Racing Louisville W. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Denver Summit W host Racing Louisville W on 24 October 2026 at Centennial Stadium, Commerce City, CO. Denver Summit W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This group stage fixture in NWSL Women is listed as Denver Summit W - Racing Louisville W. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Denver Summit W: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 22 conceded in 17 matches, 1.59 and 1.29 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.1 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +7.
Racing Louisville W: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 33 conceded in 17 matches, 1.29 and 1.94 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.1 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -17.
Side by side
| Statistic | Denver Summit W | Racing Louisville W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 15th |
| Goal difference | +7 | -17 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWD | LDLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 10 | 3 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 17 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.59 / 1.29 | 1.29 / 1.94 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.35 | 0.76 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.1 | 24.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 22% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Denver Summit W 50.1 versus Racing Louisville W 24.1, a gap of 26.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Denver Summit W's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Denver Summit W at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Denver Summit W's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Denver Summit W's way, especially at Centennial Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Denver Summit W or Racing Louisville W?
Denver Summit W, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Denver Summit W, 23% the draw and 22% Racing Louisville W.
When and where is Denver Summit W vs Racing Louisville W being played?
24 October 2026 at Centennial Stadium, Commerce City, CO, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Denver Summit W and Racing Louisville W?
Racing Louisville W 0-1 Denver Summit W on 30 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Denver Summit W and Racing Louisville W?
Denver Summit W have taken 7 points from their last five (LWLWD), Racing Louisville W 1 from theirs (LDLLL). Most recently Denver Summit W took a 2-3 defeat at home to Angel City W and Racing Louisville W a 1-2 defeat away at Boston Legacy W.
How many goals are expected in Denver Summit W vs Racing Louisville W?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 2.00 for Denver Summit W and 1.40 for Racing Louisville W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.