Bay FC W vs San Diego Wave W: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes San Diego Wave W the pick at 44% for Bay FC W vs San Diego Wave W. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
San Diego Wave W travel to Bay FC W on 1 November 2026 at PayPal Park. San Diego Wave W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This group stage fixture in NWSL Women is listed as Bay FC W - San Diego Wave W. Kick-off is 22:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Bay FC W: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 15 conceded in nine matches, 0.56 and 1.67 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.3 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -16.
San Diego Wave W: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 20 conceded in 19 matches, 1.26 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 71.6 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +13.
Side by side
| Statistic | Bay FC W | San Diego Wave W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -16 | +13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLW | DWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 12 | 10 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 9 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.56 / 1.67 | 1.26 / 1.05 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.22 | 1.68 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.3 | 71.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 44% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Bay FC W 34.3 versus San Diego Wave W 71.6, a gap of 37.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans San Diego Wave W's way at 52%.
The call
The model edges towards San Diego Wave W at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. San Diego Wave W's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bay FC W or San Diego Wave W?
San Diego Wave W, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 29% Bay FC W, 27% the draw and 44% San Diego Wave W.
When and where is Bay FC W vs San Diego Wave W being played?
1 November 2026 at PayPal Park, kick-off 22:00 UTC.
Have Bay FC W and San Diego Wave W met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Bay FC W and San Diego Wave W?
Bay FC W have taken 4 points from their last five (LDLLW), San Diego Wave W 13 from theirs (DWWWW). Most recently Bay FC W took a 0-2 defeat away at Angel City W and San Diego Wave W a 2-2 draw at home to Boston Legacy W.
How many goals are expected in Bay FC W vs San Diego Wave W?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.60 for Bay FC W and 1.00 for San Diego Wave W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.