North Carolina Courage W vs Denver Summit W: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes North Carolina Courage W the pick at 56% for North Carolina Courage W vs Denver Summit W. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
North Carolina Courage W face Denver Summit W on 1 November 2026 at WakeMed Soccer Park, Kari. North Carolina Courage W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This group stage fixture in NWSL Women is listed as North Carolina Courage W - Denver Summit W. Kick-off is 22:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
North Carolina Courage W: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 19 conceded in 18 matches, 2.06 and 1.06 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +9.
Denver Summit W: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 23 conceded in 18 matches, 1.83 and 1.28 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.0 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +12.
Side by side
| Statistic | North Carolina Courage W | Denver Summit W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 10th |
| Goal difference | +9 | +12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLL | WLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 7 | 14 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 18 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.06 / 1.06 | 1.83 / 1.28 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.83 | 1.44 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.2 | 58.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 23% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: North Carolina Courage W 37.2 versus Denver Summit W 58.0, a gap of 20.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.80, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans North Carolina Courage W's way at 53%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards North Carolina Courage W at 56%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. Denver Summit W's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts North Carolina Courage W's way, especially at WakeMed Soccer Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: North Carolina Courage W or Denver Summit W?
North Carolina Courage W, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% North Carolina Courage W, 21% the draw and 23% Denver Summit W.
When and where is North Carolina Courage W vs Denver Summit W being played?
1 November 2026 at WakeMed Soccer Park, Kari, kick-off 22:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between North Carolina Courage W and Denver Summit W?
Denver Summit W 0-2 North Carolina Courage W on 06 August 2026.
What is the recent form of North Carolina Courage W and Denver Summit W?
North Carolina Courage W have taken 3 points from their last five (LLWLL), Denver Summit W 9 from theirs (WLWLW). Most recently North Carolina Courage W took a 0-1 defeat away at Portland Thorns W and Denver Summit W a 6-1 win at home to Racing Louisville W.
How many goals are expected in North Carolina Courage W vs Denver Summit W?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.80 — 2.60 for North Carolina Courage W and 3.20 for Denver Summit W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.