Racing Louisville W vs Kansas City W — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Kansas City W the pick at 46% for Racing Louisville W vs Kansas City W. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Kansas City W travel to Racing Louisville W on 1 November 2026 at Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville. Kansas City W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This group stage fixture in NWSL Women is listed as Racing Louisville W - Kansas City W. Kick-off is 22:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Racing Louisville W: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 39 conceded in 18 matches, 1.28 and 2.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 22.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -22.
Kansas City W: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 26 conceded in 19 matches, 1.68 and 1.37 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 68.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +13.
Side by side
| Statistic | Racing Louisville W | Kansas City W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -22 | +13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLL | WWWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 13 | 13 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 18 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.28 / 2.17 | 1.68 / 1.37 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.72 | 1.74 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 22.8 | 68.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 46% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Racing Louisville W 22.8 versus Kansas City W 68.2, a gap of 45.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Kansas City W's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Kansas City W at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Kansas City W's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Racing Louisville W or Kansas City W?
Kansas City W, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 29% Racing Louisville W, 25% the draw and 46% Kansas City W.
When and where is Racing Louisville W vs Kansas City W being played?
1 November 2026 at Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville, kick-off 22:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Racing Louisville W and Kansas City W?
Kansas City W 5-1 Racing Louisville W on 30 July 2026.
What is the recent form of Racing Louisville W and Kansas City W?
Racing Louisville W have taken 1 points from their last five (LLDLL), Kansas City W 12 from theirs (WWWWL). Most recently Racing Louisville W took a 1-6 defeat away at Denver Summit W and Kansas City W a 2-1 win at home to Washington Spirit W.
How many goals are expected in Racing Louisville W vs Kansas City W?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.20 for Racing Louisville W and 1.60 for Kansas City W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.