Gagra vs Rustavi: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Gagra the pick at 39% for Gagra vs Rustavi. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Rustavi travel to Gagra on 1 November 2026 at Mtskheta Park, Tbilisi. Gagra are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 31 fixture in Erovnuli Liga is listed as Gagra - Rustavi. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Gagra: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded eight, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.4 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -17.
Rustavi: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Gagra | Rustavi |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -17 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLLD | LLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 8 | 7 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 27.4 | 57.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 39% | 31% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Gagra 27.4 versus Rustavi 57.5, a gap of 30.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.85, over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Gagra's way at 48%.
The call
The model edges towards Gagra at 39%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Gagra's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Gagra's way, especially at Mtskheta Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gagra or Rustavi?
Gagra, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 39% Gagra, 29% the draw and 31% Rustavi.
When and where is Gagra vs Rustavi being played?
1 November 2026 at Mtskheta Park, Tbilisi, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Gagra and Rustavi met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Gagra and Rustavi?
Gagra have taken 5 points from their last five (WDLLD), Rustavi 9 from theirs (LLWWW). Most recently Gagra took a 2-1 win at home to Rustavi and Rustavi a 1-2 defeat away at Gagra.
How many goals are expected in Gagra vs Rustavi?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.85 — 0.25 for Gagra and 0.60 for Rustavi. It rates over 2.5 goals at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.