Samgurali vs Spaeri: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Samgurali the pick at 44% for Samgurali vs Spaeri. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Samgurali face Spaeri on 31 October 2026 at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili. Samgurali are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 31 fixture in Erovnuli Liga is listed as Samgurali - Spaeri. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Samgurali: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored nine and conceded nine, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.0 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -12.
Spaeri: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored five and conceded eleven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.9 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -11.
Side by side
| Statistic | Samgurali | Spaeri |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -12 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLL | DLDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 9 | 5 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.0 | 28.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 29% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Samgurali 42.0 versus Spaeri 28.9, a gap of 13.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Samgurali's way at 52%.
The call
The model edges towards Samgurali at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Samgurali's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Samgurali's way, especially at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Samgurali or Spaeri?
Samgurali, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Samgurali, 26% the draw and 29% Spaeri.
When and where is Samgurali vs Spaeri being played?
31 October 2026 at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have Samgurali and Spaeri met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Samgurali and Spaeri?
Samgurali have taken 6 points from their last five (LWWLL), Spaeri 2 from theirs (DLDLL). Most recently Samgurali took a 0-3 defeat away at Dinamo Batumi and Spaeri a 0-0 draw at home to Gagra.
How many goals are expected in Samgurali vs Spaeri?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Samgurali and 0.80 for Spaeri. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.