Rustavi vs Samgurali: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Rustavi the pick at 43% for Rustavi vs Samgurali. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Samgurali travel to Rustavi on 7 November 2026 at David Petriashvili Stadium, Tbilisi. Rustavi are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 32 fixture in Erovnuli Liga is listed as Rustavi - Samgurali. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Rustavi: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 0.83 and 1.0 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +10.
Samgurali: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 11 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 1.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.3 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -12.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rustavi | Samgurali |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +10 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLWW | DLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 7 | 7 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.83 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.83 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 50.8 | 45.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 25% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Rustavi 50.8 versus Samgurali 45.3, a gap of 5.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Rustavi's way at 56%.
The call
The model edges towards Rustavi at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Samgurali's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Rustavi's way, especially at David Petriashvili Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rustavi or Samgurali?
Rustavi, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Rustavi, 32% the draw and 25% Samgurali.
When and where is Rustavi vs Samgurali being played?
7 November 2026 at David Petriashvili Stadium, Tbilisi, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Rustavi and Samgurali met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Rustavi and Samgurali?
Rustavi have taken 7 points from their last five (DLLWW), Samgurali 7 from theirs (DLWWL). Most recently Rustavi took a 2-2 draw away at Gagra and Samgurali a 0-0 draw at home to Spaeri.
How many goals are expected in Rustavi vs Samgurali?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Rustavi and 1.00 for Samgurali. It rates over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.