FK Liepaja vs Tukums: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes FK Liepaja the pick at 42% for FK Liepaja vs Tukums. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FK Liepaja host Tukums on 24 October 2026 at Tukuma pilsetas stadions, Tukums. FK Liepaja are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 34 fixture in Virsliga is listed as FK Liepaja - Tukums. Kick-off is 10:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FK Liepaja: they come in on the back of a win, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded five, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of 0.
Tukums: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored three and conceded seven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.1 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -21.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FK Liepaja | Tukums |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 9th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -21 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDDD | LLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 5 | 3 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.0 | 33.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 29% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: FK Liepaja 45.0 versus Tukums 33.1, a gap of 11.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.35, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans FK Liepaja's way at 53%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards FK Liepaja at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. FK Liepaja's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FK Liepaja's way, especially at Tukuma pilsetas stadions.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FK Liepaja or Tukums?
FK Liepaja, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% FK Liepaja, 29% the draw and 29% Tukums.
When and where is FK Liepaja vs Tukums being played?
24 October 2026 at Tukuma pilsetas stadions, Tukums, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
Have FK Liepaja and Tukums met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FK Liepaja and Tukums?
FK Liepaja have taken 6 points from their last five (WLDDD), Tukums 4 from theirs (LLDLW). Most recently FK Liepaja took a 3-0 win at home to FS Jelgava and Tukums a 0-2 defeat away at Rīgas FS.
How many goals are expected in FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.35 — 1.00 for FK Liepaja and 1.35 for Tukums. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.