BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums match summary and prediction — Virsliga
Our model makes BFC Daugavpils the pick at 56% for BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
BFC Daugavpils host Tukums on 1 November 2026 at Celtnieks, Daugavpils. BFC Daugavpils are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 35 fixture in Virsliga is listed as BFC Daugavpils - Tukums. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
BFC Daugavpils: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored six and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.1 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +3.
Tukums: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored one and conceded six, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.4 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -21.
Side by side
| Statistic | BFC Daugavpils | Tukums |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -21 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWDL | DLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 4 | 1 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.1 | 26.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 17% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: BFC Daugavpils 59.1 versus Tukums 26.4, a gap of 32.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans BFC Daugavpils' way at 57%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards BFC Daugavpils at 56%, a gap of 29 percentage points to the next outcome. BFC Daugavpils' form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts BFC Daugavpils's way, especially at Celtnieks.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: BFC Daugavpils or Tukums?
BFC Daugavpils, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% BFC Daugavpils, 27% the draw and 17% Tukums.
When and where is BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums being played?
1 November 2026 at Celtnieks, Daugavpils, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have BFC Daugavpils and Tukums met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of BFC Daugavpils and Tukums?
BFC Daugavpils have taken 10 points from their last five (WWWDL), Tukums 2 from theirs (DLLDL). Most recently BFC Daugavpils took a 1-0 win away at FS Jelgava and Tukums a 0-0 draw away at FK Liepaja.
How many goals are expected in BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 1.00 for BFC Daugavpils and 0.00 for Tukums. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.