FK Liepaja vs Super Nova match summary and prediction — Virsliga
Our model makes FK Liepaja the pick at 53% for FK Liepaja vs Super Nova. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FK Liepaja host Super Nova on 1 November 2026 at Daugava Stadium, Liepaja. FK Liepaja are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This matchday 35 fixture in Virsliga is listed as FK Liepaja - Super Nova. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FK Liepaja: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded five, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of 0.
Super Nova: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored three and conceded eleven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.5 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -18.
Side by side
| Statistic | FK Liepaja | Super Nova |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 6th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -18 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLDD | LLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 5 | 3 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.0 | 30.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 18% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: FK Liepaja 45.0 versus Super Nova 30.5, a gap of 14.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans FK Liepaja's way at 60%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to FK Liepaja at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. FK Liepaja's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FK Liepaja's way, especially at Daugava Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FK Liepaja or Super Nova?
FK Liepaja, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% FK Liepaja, 29% the draw and 18% Super Nova.
When and where is FK Liepaja vs Super Nova being played?
1 November 2026 at Daugava Stadium, Liepaja, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have FK Liepaja and Super Nova met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FK Liepaja and Super Nova?
FK Liepaja have taken 6 points from their last five (DWLDD), Super Nova 3 from theirs (LLLWL). Most recently FK Liepaja took a 0-0 draw at home to Tukums and Super Nova a 0-3 defeat at home to Rīgas FS.
How many goals are expected in FK Liepaja vs Super Nova?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 0.50 for FK Liepaja and 0.50 for Super Nova. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.