Ogre United vs Riga — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Riga the pick at 61% for Ogre United vs Riga. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Riga travel to Ogre United on 1 November 2026. Riga are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 61%. This matchday 35 fixture in Virsliga is listed as Ogre United - Riga. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Ogre United: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored five and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 22.2 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -51.
Riga: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored eleven and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 90.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +62.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Ogre United | Riga |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -51 | +62 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWL | WDWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 10 | 11 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 22.2 | 90.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 20% | 61% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Ogre United 22.2 versus Riga 90.5, a gap of 68.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.50, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 66%.
- First goal: Leans Riga's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Riga at 61%, a gap of 41 percentage points to the next outcome. Riga's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ogre United or Riga?
Riga, with an implied win probability of roughly 61%. The full split is 20% Ogre United, 19% the draw and 61% Riga.
When and where is Ogre United vs Riga being played?
1 November 2026, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have Ogre United and Riga met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Ogre United and Riga?
Ogre United have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLWL), Riga 11 from theirs (WDWDW). Most recently Ogre United took a 1-4 defeat at home to Auda and Riga a 5-2 win away at Grobiņa.
How many goals are expected in Ogre United vs Riga?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.50 — 1.50 for Ogre United and 2.00 for Riga. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 66%, so its call is yes.