Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Rīgas FS the pick at 60% for Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Grobiņa travel to Rīgas FS on 1 November 2026 at Stadions Arkadija, Riga. Rīgas FS are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 60%. This matchday 35 fixture in Virsliga is listed as Rīgas FS - Grobiņa. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Rīgas FS: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored 14 and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 83.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +60.
Grobiņa: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.2 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -34.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rīgas FS | Grobiņa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 8th |
| Goal difference | +60 | -34 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWD | LWLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 14 / 3 | 7 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 83.3 | 33.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 60% | 19% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Rīgas FS 83.3 versus Grobiņa 33.2, a gap of 50.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.50, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 43%.
- First goal: Leans Rīgas FS's way at 58%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Rīgas FS at 60%, a gap of 40 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Rīgas FS's way, especially at Stadions Arkadija.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rīgas FS or Grobiņa?
Rīgas FS, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%. The full split is 60% Rīgas FS, 21% the draw and 19% Grobiņa.
When and where is Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa being played?
1 November 2026 at Stadions Arkadija, Riga, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have Rīgas FS and Grobiņa met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Rīgas FS and Grobiņa?
Rīgas FS have taken 13 points from their last five (WWWWD), Grobiņa 5 from theirs (LWLDD). Most recently Rīgas FS took a 3-0 win away at Super Nova and Grobiņa a 2-5 defeat at home to Riga.
How many goals are expected in Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.50 — 1.00 for Rīgas FS and 2.50 for Grobiņa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 43%, so its call is no.