Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja match summary and prediction — Virsliga
Our model makes FK Liepaja the pick at 44% for Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Grobiņa face FK Liepaja on 8 November 2026. FK Liepaja are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 36 fixture in Virsliga is listed as Grobiņa - FK Liepaja. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Grobiņa: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded 13, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.1 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -37.
FK Liepaja: they come in on two successive draws, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored eight and conceded six, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Grobiņa | FK Liepaja |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 5th |
| Goal difference | -37 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLD | DDWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 13 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 29.1 | 45.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 28% | 44% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Grobiņa 29.1 versus FK Liepaja 45.0, a gap of 15.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 65%.
- First goal: Leans FK Liepaja's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards FK Liepaja at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. FK Liepaja's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Grobiņa or FK Liepaja?
FK Liepaja, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 28% Grobiņa, 27% the draw and 44% FK Liepaja.
When and where is Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja being played?
8 November 2026, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have Grobiņa and FK Liepaja met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Grobiņa and FK Liepaja?
Grobiņa have taken 4 points from their last five (LLWLD), FK Liepaja 6 from theirs (DDWLD). Most recently Grobiņa took a 0-3 defeat away at Rīgas FS and FK Liepaja a 3-3 draw at home to Super Nova.
How many goals are expected in Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.67 for Grobiņa and 1.33 for FK Liepaja. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 65%, so its call is yes.