FS Jelgava vs Ogre United match summary and prediction — Virsliga
Our model makes FS Jelgava the pick at 54% for FS Jelgava vs Ogre United. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FS Jelgava face Ogre United on 8 November 2026 at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava. FS Jelgava are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 36 fixture in Virsliga is listed as FS Jelgava - Ogre United. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FS Jelgava: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored five and conceded 13, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 19.0 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -24.
Ogre United: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded nine, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.6 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -51.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FS Jelgava | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -24 | -51 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLL | DLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 13 | 5 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 19.0 | 25.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 25% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: FS Jelgava 19.0 versus Ogre United 25.6, a gap of 6.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans FS Jelgava's way at 60%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to FS Jelgava at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FS Jelgava's way, especially at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FS Jelgava or Ogre United?
FS Jelgava, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% FS Jelgava, 21% the draw and 25% Ogre United.
When and where is FS Jelgava vs Ogre United being played?
8 November 2026 at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have FS Jelgava and Ogre United met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FS Jelgava and Ogre United?
FS Jelgava have taken 0 points from their last five (LLLLL), Ogre United 4 from theirs (DLLLW). Most recently FS Jelgava took a 3-4 defeat away at Auda and Ogre United a 0-0 draw at home to Riga.
How many goals are expected in FS Jelgava vs Ogre United?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 1.50 for FS Jelgava and 1.00 for Ogre United. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.