Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils match summary and prediction — Virsliga
Our model makes BFC Daugavpils the pick at 42% for Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Super Nova host BFC Daugavpils on 8 November 2026 at Slokas Stadions. BFC Daugavpils are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 36 fixture in Virsliga is listed as Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Super Nova: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored six and conceded 13, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -18.
BFC Daugavpils: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored seven and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.6 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Super Nova | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -18 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLLW | WWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 13 | 7 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 33.8 | 69.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 31% | 42% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Super Nova 33.8 versus BFC Daugavpils 69.6, a gap of 35.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.83, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Super Nova's way at 45%.
The call
The model edges towards BFC Daugavpils at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. BFC Daugavpils' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Super Nova or BFC Daugavpils?
BFC Daugavpils, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 31% Super Nova, 27% the draw and 42% BFC Daugavpils.
When and where is Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils being played?
8 November 2026 at Slokas Stadions, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils?
Super Nova have taken 4 points from their last five (DLLLW), BFC Daugavpils 13 from theirs (WWWWD). Most recently Super Nova took a 3-3 draw away at FK Liepaja and BFC Daugavpils a 2-0 win at home to Tukums.
How many goals are expected in Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.83 — 1.33 for Super Nova and 1.50 for BFC Daugavpils. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.