Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Universidad Catolica and Orense SC on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Universidad Catolica host Orense SC on 15 September 2026. Universidad Catolica are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 30 fixture in Liga Pro is listed as Universidad Catolica - Orense SC. Kick-off is 00:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Universidad Catolica: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 18 conceded in 16 matches, 1.88 and 1.12 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +23.
Orense SC: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 20 conceded in 17 matches, 1.24 and 1.18 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.5 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Universidad Catolica | Orense SC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 13th |
| Goal difference | +23 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDDW | WLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 4 | 7 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 16 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.88 / 1.12 | 1.24 / 1.18 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.69 | 1.35 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.8 | 42.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 12% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 1) | 1 | 0 |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Universidad Catolica 60.8 versus Orense SC 42.5, a gap of 18.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 32% and both teams to score at 30%.
- First goal: Leans Universidad Catolica's way at 72%.
The call
The model does not commit. Universidad Catolica is the nominal pick at 46%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Universidad Catolica or Orense SC?
Universidad Catolica, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Universidad Catolica, 42% the draw and 12% Orense SC.
When and where is Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC being played?
15 September 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Universidad Catolica and Orense SC?
Orense SC 1-2 Universidad Catolica on 23 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Universidad Catolica and Orense SC?
Universidad Catolica have taken 11 points from their last five (WWDDW), Orense SC 6 from theirs (WLLLW). Most recently Universidad Catolica took a 1-0 win away at Astillero FC (Ecu) and Orense SC a 4-3 win at home to Guayaquil City FC.
How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.00 for Universidad Catolica and 1.40 for Orense SC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 30%, so its call is no.