America Mineiro vs São Bernardo: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes America Mineiro the pick at 52% for America Mineiro vs São Bernardo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
São Bernardo travel to America Mineiro on 14 September 2026 at Arena Independência, Belo Horizonte. America Mineiro are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 28 fixture in Serie B is listed as America Mineiro - São Bernardo. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
America Mineiro: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 27 conceded in 15 matches, 0.67 and 1.8 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.8 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -25.
São Bernardo: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 19 conceded in 22 matches, 1.45 and 0.86 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.2 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | America Mineiro | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 14th |
| Goal difference | -25 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWLL | LWLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 10 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 15 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.67 / 1.8 | 1.45 / 0.86 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.4 | 1.77 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.8 | 43.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 11% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: America Mineiro 38.8 versus São Bernardo 43.2, a gap of 4.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.67, over 2.5 goals at 14% and both teams to score at 34%.
- First goal: Leans America Mineiro's way at 70%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to America Mineiro at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts America Mineiro's way, especially at Arena Independência.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: America Mineiro or São Bernardo?
America Mineiro, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% America Mineiro, 37% the draw and 11% São Bernardo.
When and where is America Mineiro vs São Bernardo being played?
14 September 2026 at Arena Independência, Belo Horizonte, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between America Mineiro and São Bernardo?
São Bernardo 1-1 America Mineiro on 16 May 2026.
What is the recent form of America Mineiro and São Bernardo?
America Mineiro have taken 6 points from their last five (WLWLL), São Bernardo 5 from theirs (LWLDD). Most recently America Mineiro took a 2-1 win at home to Nautico Recife and São Bernardo a 1-2 defeat at home to Londrina.
How many goals are expected in America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.67 — 0.67 for America Mineiro and 1.00 for São Bernardo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 14%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 34%, so its call is no.