Avai vs Vila Nova: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 48% for Avai vs Vila Nova. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Vila Nova travel to Avai on 15 September 2026 at Estádio da Ressacada, Florianopolis. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 28 fixture in Serie B is listed as Avai - Vila Nova. Kick-off is 00:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Avai: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two wins before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 18 conceded in 16 matches, 1.0 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.2 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -7.
Vila Nova: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 15 conceded in 17 matches, 1.24 and 0.88 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.6 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +9.
Side by side
| Statistic | Avai | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -7 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWW | WLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 10 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 4 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 16 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 1.12 | 1.24 / 0.88 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.12 | 1.82 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 43.2 | 60.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 22% | 29% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 1) | 0 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Avai 43.2 versus Vila Nova 60.6, a gap of 17.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.50, over 2.5 goals at 6% and both teams to score at 24%.
- First goal: Leans Avai's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Vila Nova's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Avai or Vila Nova?
Neither side. Our model splits it 22% Avai, 48% the draw and 29% Vila Nova, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Avai vs Vila Nova being played?
15 September 2026 at Estádio da Ressacada, Florianopolis, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Avai and Vila Nova?
Vila Nova 2-0 Avai on 17 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Avai and Vila Nova?
Avai have taken 6 points from their last five (LLLWW), Vila Nova 10 from theirs (WLWDW). Most recently Avai took a 0-1 defeat away at Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova a 2-0 win at home to Goias.
How many goals are expected in Avai vs Vila Nova?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.50 — 0.75 for Avai and 0.75 for Vila Nova. It rates over 2.5 goals at 6%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 24%, so its call is no.