Londrina vs Ponte Preta: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Londrina the pick at 71% for Londrina vs Ponte Preta. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Ponte Preta travel to Londrina on 15 September 2026 at Estadio do Cafe, Londrina. Londrina are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 71%. This matchday 28 fixture in Serie B is listed as Londrina - Ponte Preta. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Londrina: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (12 scored and 20 conceded in 16 matches, 0.75 and 1.25 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.9 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -7.
Ponte Preta: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 34 conceded in 18 matches, 0.83 and 1.89 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 15.0 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -40.
Side by side
| Statistic | Londrina | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 20th |
| Goal difference | -7 | -40 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLD | LLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 5 | 0 / 14 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 16 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.75 / 1.25 | 0.83 / 1.89 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.75 | 0.44 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.9 | 15.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 71% | 4% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 1) | 1 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Londrina 39.9 versus Ponte Preta 15.0, a gap of 24.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 19%.
- First goal: Leans Londrina's way at 84%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Londrina at 71%, a gap of 46 percentage points to the next outcome. Londrina's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Londrina's way, especially at Estadio do Cafe.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Londrina or Ponte Preta?
Londrina, with an implied win probability of roughly 71%. The full split is 71% Londrina, 25% the draw and 4% Ponte Preta.
When and where is Londrina vs Ponte Preta being played?
15 September 2026 at Estadio do Cafe, Londrina, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Londrina and Ponte Preta?
Ponte Preta 1-4 Londrina on 18 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Londrina and Ponte Preta?
Londrina have taken 5 points from their last five (WLDLD), Ponte Preta 0 from theirs (LLLLL). Most recently Londrina took a 2-1 win away at São Bernardo and Ponte Preta a 0-2 defeat away at Sport Recife.
How many goals are expected in Londrina vs Ponte Preta?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 2.00 for Londrina and 0.60 for Ponte Preta. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 19%, so its call is no.