Londrina vs Fortaleza EC: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 53% for Londrina vs Fortaleza EC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Londrina host Fortaleza EC on 20 September 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 53%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 29 fixture in Serie B is listed as Londrina - Fortaleza EC. Kick-off is 21:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Londrina: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (12 scored and 20 conceded in 16 matches, 0.75 and 1.25 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.1 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -1.
Fortaleza EC: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 18 conceded in 18 matches, 1.22 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.7 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Londrina | Fortaleza EC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 4th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLDL | DWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 5 | 6 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 16 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.75 / 1.25 | 1.22 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.75 | 1.72 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.1 | 63.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 21% | 26% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Londrina 48.1 versus Fortaleza EC 63.7, a gap of 15.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 30%.
- First goal: Leans Londrina's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Londrina or Fortaleza EC?
Neither side. Our model splits it 21% Londrina, 53% the draw and 26% Fortaleza EC, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Londrina vs Fortaleza EC being played?
20 September 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Londrina and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC 3-0 Londrina on 23 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Londrina and Fortaleza EC?
Londrina have taken 7 points from their last five (WWLDL), Fortaleza EC 11 from theirs (DWWDW). Most recently Londrina took a 6-0 win at home to Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC a 1-1 draw at home to Ceara.
How many goals are expected in Londrina vs Fortaleza EC?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 2.00 for Londrina and 0.60 for Fortaleza EC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 30%, so its call is no.