Novorizontino vs São Bernardo

Novorizontino vs São Bernardo: match summary, form and prediction

There is barely anything between Novorizontino and São Bernardo on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.

Match summary

Novorizontino face São Bernardo on 25 September 2026 at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte. Novorizontino are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 30 fixture in Serie B is listed as Novorizontino - São Bernardo. Kick-off is 22:30 UTC.

Form analysis and trajectory

Novorizontino: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 24 conceded in 32 matches, 1.41 and 0.75 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +22.

São Bernardo: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 26 conceded in 27 matches, 1.59 and 0.96 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.2 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +9.

Comparison data

What stands out

• Head-to-head balance (last 2): Novorizontino none wins, São Bernardo none wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
• Most recent meeting: São Bernardo 1-1 Novorizontino on 31 May 2026.
• Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
• Pre-match form ratings: Novorizontino 63.8 versus São Bernardo 57.2, a gap of 6.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
• Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
• Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
• Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 58%.
• First goal: Leans Novorizontino's way at 62%.

The call

The model does not commit. Novorizontino is the nominal pick at 44%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Novorizontino's way, especially at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.

Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured to win the match: Novorizontino or São Bernardo?

Novorizontino, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Novorizontino, 43% the draw and 13% São Bernardo.

When and where is Novorizontino vs São Bernardo being played?

25 September 2026 at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte, kick-off 22:30 UTC.

What was the result of the last match between Novorizontino and São Bernardo?

São Bernardo 1-1 Novorizontino on 31 May 2026.

What is the recent form of Novorizontino and São Bernardo?

Novorizontino have taken 10 points from their last five (LDWWW), São Bernardo 9 from theirs (WWLWL). Most recently Novorizontino took a 1-2 defeat away at Ceara and São Bernardo a 1-0 win at home to Atletico Goianiense.

How many goals are expected in Novorizontino vs São Bernardo?

The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 2.00 for Novorizontino and 1.80 for São Bernardo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 72%.

Will both teams score?

The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.