Vila Nova vs Londrina match summary and prediction — Serie B
Our model makes a draw the pick at 49% for Vila Nova vs Londrina. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Londrina travel to Vila Nova on 25 September 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 49%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 30 fixture in Serie B is listed as Vila Nova - Londrina. Kick-off is 23:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Vila Nova: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 24 conceded in 22 matches, 1.09 and 1.09 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +10.
Londrina: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 28 conceded in 22 matches, 1.0 and 1.27 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.8 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Vila Nova | Londrina |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 18th |
| Goal difference | +10 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWLW | LWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 10 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 22 | 22 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.09 / 1.09 | 1.0 / 1.27 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.59 | 0.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.8 | 47.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 17% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Vila Nova 60.8 versus Londrina 47.8, a gap of 13.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 17 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 27% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Vila Nova's way at 61%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vila Nova or Londrina?
Neither side. Our model splits it 33% Vila Nova, 49% the draw and 17% Londrina, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Vila Nova vs Londrina being played?
25 September 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Vila Nova and Londrina?
Londrina 0-1 Vila Nova on 31 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Vila Nova and Londrina?
Vila Nova have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWLW), Londrina 7 from theirs (LWWLD). Most recently Vila Nova took a 1-0 win at home to America Mineiro and Londrina a 1-2 defeat at home to Fortaleza EC.
How many goals are expected in Vila Nova vs Londrina?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.60 for Vila Nova and 1.40 for Londrina. It rates over 2.5 goals at 27%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.