Avai vs Ceara — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 47% for Avai vs Ceara. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Avai host Ceara on 3 October 2026 at Ressacada. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 47%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 31 fixture in Serie B is listed as Avai - Ceara. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Avai: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 25 conceded in 21 matches, 0.86 and 1.19 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.6 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -11.
Ceara: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 27 conceded in 25 matches, 1.2 and 1.08 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 50.2 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Avai | Ceara |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLL | DWDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 10 | 8 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 21 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.86 / 1.19 | 1.2 / 1.08 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.6 | 50.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 35% | 18% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Avai 25.6 versus Ceara 50.2, a gap of 24.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.80, over 2.5 goals at 11% and both teams to score at 36%.
- First goal: Leans Avai's way at 61%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Ceara's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Avai or Ceara?
Neither side. Our model splits it 35% Avai, 47% the draw and 18% Ceara, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Avai vs Ceara being played?
3 October 2026 at Ressacada, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Avai and Ceara?
Ceara 2-1 Avai on 10 June 2026.
What is the recent form of Avai and Ceara?
Avai have taken 1 points from their last five (LLDLL), Ceara 8 from theirs (DWDLW). Most recently Avai took a 0-3 defeat away at Criciuma and Ceara a 2-2 draw away at Operario-PR.
How many goals are expected in Avai vs Ceara?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.80 — 0.40 for Avai and 0.40 for Ceara. It rates over 2.5 goals at 11%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 36%, so its call is no.